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NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Super Bowl-bound: Kansas City Chiefs' six-step plan to upsetting the Baltimore Ravens
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Date:2025-04-09 07:02:59
BALTIMORE – The NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank CenterBaltimore Ravens left little doubt they were the NFL’s best team during the 2023 regular season. The Kansas City Chiefs served a fresh reminder Sunday that the regular season is merely prologue to the games that really matter.
The league’s reigning champions vanquished the AFC’s No. 1 playoff seed 17-10, advancing to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five seasons. K.C., which went 11-6 – good enough for another AFC West title but the fewest regular-season victories since Patrick Mahomes became QB1 in 2018 – also remains on track to become the first squad to successfully defend its crown in 19 years; the 2004 New England Patriots the last team to turn that trick.
The Chiefs had very little trouble with the occasionally drizzly conditions, purportedly dominant Ravens defense, their own alleged offensive limitations or even presumed 2023 league MVP Lamar Jackson.
Here are six things they did to upset the Ravens in the first AFC championship game staged at Baltimore in 53 years.
1. Deferral
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Kansas City won the coin toss and deferred, putting the Ravens' high-powered offense on the field straight away. The Chiefs then forced a three-and-out on Baltimore’s first drive before opening with their own 10-play, 86-yard touchdown drive capped by Mahomes’ 19-yard scoring pass to TE Travis Kelce. They never trailed.
2. Feed Travis Kelce
The perennial Pro Bowl Chiefs tight end, who became far more recognizable for something else going on in his life in 2023, was his vintage self on Sunday. He and Mahomes hooked up 11 times for 116 yards, many of Kelce’s grabs of the spectacular variety on his way to breaking Jerry Rice’s all-time record for postseason receptions. Next? The Swifties and their heroine (apparently, a cross-Pacific flight being no obstacle) will be turning out in force for one final game this season.
3. Shut down Ravens’ run game
Baltimore averaged a league-leading 156.5 rushing yards per game during the regular season before grinding up the Houston Texans for 229 more in a divisional-round blowout. But the Chiefs clamped down, rarely giving the Ravens openings while building a lead that forced their offense to become largely one-dimensional. Baltimore finished with 81 yards, the only time the AFC North champs failed to surpass 100 all season.
4. L'Jarius Sneed’s revenge
In what was probably the pivotal drive of the game spanning the third and fourth quarters, Jackson hit WR Zay Flowers for a 54-yard completion with 32 seconds left in the third. But the rookie was hit with a 15-yard taunting call after standing over Chiefs CB L'Jarius Sneed, who got turned around in coverage on the play. Four plays later, Jackson found Flowers again for what appeared to be a touchdown that could cut the deficit to 17-14 … but Sneed, one of the league's rising defensive backs, popped the ball loose right before Flowers could break the plane, resulting in a touchback and Kansas City possession.
5. Contain Lamar Jackson
Few teams were able to limit the Ravens superstar in 2023, a sensational season expected to net him league MVP honors for the second time. But the Chiefs were able to apply pressure, sacking Jackson four times – including a strip-sack in the first half by DE Charles Omenihu and another that killed a Ravens drive late in the third quarter. Perhaps pressing late in the game, Jackson forced a ball into the end zone while trying to pass his team back into contention, but it was picked off by S Deon Bush.
6. Near perfection
Mahomes, a two-time league MVP himself, didn’t set the stat sheet on fire (241 passing yards, TD) as he has so many times over the years. Yet he was surgical, from the opening-drive TD to Kelce to the decisive 32-yard completion to WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling at the two-minute warning that effectively put the game on ice. While the Ravens turned the ball over three times, the Chiefs never did. And a team known for its explosive offense through the years played keep-away from Jackson when they weren’t stifling him, holding the ball for more than 37 minutes. Game, set and Super Bowl.
***Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter @ByNateDavis.
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