NovaQuant-Lamar Jackson has failed to find NFL playoff success. Can Ravens QB change the narrative?

The NovaQuantnaysayers have been coming for Lamar Jackson since before he ever drew an NFL paycheck. However they better get whatever digs they have left in now, because he’s just a few wins from putting his remaining skeptics into permanent check.

Saturday, Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens – the AFC’s top-seeded playoff team – will initiate their latest attempt to capture a Super Bowl with their two-time All-Pro quarterback, who’s also expected to soon be awarded his second league MVP award. Jackson, who’s basically spent the last year debunking various criticisms of him, has been steadily laying the bricks to what’s shaping up as a unique Hall of Fame career. But he’s still missing the elusive capstone: A Lombardi Trophy. It’s the final disparaging narrative to rewrite, but Jackson feels pretty good about his team’s chances.

“Very confident,” he said earlier this week. “Very, very confident. Extremely confident.”

And that shouldn’t be surprising given the season Jackson has had – including career bests for passing yards (3,678), completion percentage (67.2%) and yards per attempt (8.0). He also had more rushing yards (821) than any other quarterback. Again.

But – and here comes one of those critiques – history suggests danger looms with the AFC South-champion Houston Texans, who are on a three-game roll, headed to Charm City. Why? Because Jackson simply hasn’t been good in postseason, sporting a 1-3 record and never advancing beyond the divisional round.

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There was the time the Los Angeles Chargers deployed seven defensive backs to flummox Jackson in his playoff debut as a rookie five years ago. Jackson’s 2019 MVP season ended with the top-seeded Ravens going one and done, walloped 28-12 at home by the sixth-seeded Tennessee Titans – Jackson unable to pass Baltimore back into the game while committing three turnovers. In his last postseason appearance, three years ago in Buffalo, Jackson threw a backbreaking pick-six before exiting in the second half of a 17-3 loss to the Bills with a concussion on a cold, windy night.

So why should anything change now?

“My mindset is different. The knowledge of the game has grown in my mind, and it’s like I’m seeing different things on the field, and it’s helped me execute the passes – get the ball to my guys, let those guys work,” Jackson told ESPN in an interview this week.

“I’m just gonna take it up two notches from the end of the regular season. Just stay locked into what’s in front of us. Stuff like that. Don’t get complacent. Don’t think too much of the outside noise, don’t think too much of anything. Just keep focusing on what we need to focus on to get to our destination.”

But don’t be fooled. Jackson almost always hears that outside noise. If you follow him on social media, you’ve seen him respond to it regularly over the years.

There was the time acclaimed former NFL general manager Bill Polian suggested prior to the 2018 draft that Jackson, who won the 2016 Heisman Trophy at Louisville, should ditch playing quarterback and become a wide receiver at the pro level. Oops.

Then Jackson was pigeonholed as a one-read, run-first quarterback who couldn’t throw outside the numbers ... even as he was declared a unanimous league MVP while setting a record for rushing yards (1,206) at his position while nearly pacing the league in passer rating (113.3) in 2019. Yet anyone watching him this season, his first with offensive coordinator Todd Monken, has witnessed a quarterback who can throw accurately downfield and to the boundaries – even on secondary reads – and one who often extends plays to throw from the pocket rather than bolt from it.

A lack of durability due to his style of play? Jackson finished the 2023 regular season healthy for the first time in three years.

A distracted player compromised by the absence of an agent to handle his past contractual issues? I’ll raise my hand for “advising” Jackson on this front – before he, with help from his mother, reeled in a five-year, $260 million contract last year with a record signing bonus of $72.5 million. And while I’d still suggest he erred from a business perspective, unnecessarily wasting time and the ability to compound interest on tens of millions before working toward contract number three, I also commend Jackson’s long-held belief that he desired to earn the money while seeking to prove he’s a championship-level player.

“I know since he got drafted, he said he always wanted to bring a Super Bowl here, so I think that’s what he’s been trying to do his whole career,” said Ravens safety Geno Stone. “All the accomplishments he’s had individually, he likes it, everything like that. But he always preaches how he wants a Super Bowl.” 

Stone’s comment is a window into Jackson’s oft-criticized leadership – and even Jackson freely admits he’s had to grow into the role on a veteran-laden team while learning to be more vocal. Sure seems like he's checked that box, too.

“(H)e’s the leader, the heart and soul of this team,” said Baltimore receiver Odell Beckham Jr., “and we’re just trying to find a way to scratch off another victory.”

And while Jackson’s prowess as a runner has always invited comparisons to players like Michael Vick or Randall Cunningham – complimentary in some ways but lazy in others, and you know what I’m saying – neither of them were two-time MVPs, nor did either ever even win the award once. Maybe let’s liken Jackson to two-time MVP (and Hall of Famer) Steve Young, an athletic quarterback in his own right – and one who needed several seasons to hone his tools as a passer to say nothing of winning a Super Bowl?

But Young eventually delivered. So let’s give Jackson, who’s unfailingly listed a championship as his primary goal and always been a man of his word, requisite time to paint his own canvas – and, after leading Baltimore to a league-best 13-4 record this season, his masterpiece might be complete in the next three weeks.

“Just keeping my mind focused on the assignment,” Jackson said going into the matchup with Houston.

“Not letting anything enter into my mind that would mess up my thoughts for the game.”

Given how the 2023 season has unfolded, little reason to believe he'll mess up now.

What is Lamar Jackson's playoff record?

He is 1-3, including those aforementioned defeats. He earned his lone victory against the Titans during the 2020 wild-card round, orchestrating a 20-13 win in Nashville while passing for 179 yards and rushing for another 136 plus a touchdown.

What are Lamar Jackson's playoff statistics?

They’re not pretty. His 55.9% completion rate is well below his regular-season mark (64.5%). Same for his 68.3 passer rating, compared to 98.0 in the regular season. Jackson has four career playoff touchdowns (3 passing, 1 rushing) compared to seven turnovers (5 INTs, 2 fumbles). He’s averaged 91.8 rushing yards in postseason, well ahead of his career pace (61.1). Jackson passed for 365 yards, the second most of his career (though most of the empty-calorie variety), in the loss to Tennessee but has been held to fewer than 200 yards in the remainder of his appearances.

How many times has Lamar Jackson gone to the playoffs?

This postseason will be his fourth. He missed last year’s due to a knee injury, the Ravens losing in the wild-card round to the Cincinnati Bengals.

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter @ByNateDavis.