SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center:Daunting, daring or dumb? Florida’s ‘healthy’ schedule provides obstacles and opportunities

GAINESVILLE,SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center Fla. (AP) — There’s little chance Florida will ever put together a schedule like this again.

No one should, really.

It’s daunting. It’s daring. It might even be dumb for anyone in an era in which 12 teams — and potentially 16 down the road — make the College Football Playoff.

It’s great for discussion. It’s something to debate. But it’s downright diabolical for coach Billy Napier in what many consider a time-to-show-something-more season following back-to-back losing campaigns.

The Gators play eight teams ranked in The Associated Press Top 25 preseason college football poll, beginning with No. 19 Miami in the Swamp on Aug. 31. It’s a gauntlet unlike anything the program has faced before.

“Every week’s going to be a battle,” safety Asa Turner said.

The schedule is one reason oddsmakers placed Florida’s over/under for wins in 2024 at 4 1/2 and why Southeastern Conference media members projected the Gators to finish 12th out of 16 teams in the powerhouse league.

“We have had a roller coaster of emotions when it comes to how people have thought about us and what they’ve said about us,” tight end Arlis Boardingham said. “But we tend to tune that out in terms of what they think.

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“We’re ready. We’re ready to prove them wrong.”

In fairness to Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin, parts of the schedule were already done when the SEC added Big 12 stalwarts Texas and Oklahoma and overhauled conference matchups across the board. Florida’s annual meetings with Missouri, South Carolina and Vanderbilt were replaced by games against No. 20 Texas A&M, fourth-ranked Texas and No. 6 Mississippi.

Throw in No. 15 Tennessee, top-ranked Georgia, No. 13 LSU and 10th-ranked Florida State, and the Gators have the toughest schedule in the country and the most grueling in school history.

Making it even more demanding, Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and FSU will be played across five Saturdays in November.

Three times previously — in 1987, 1991 and 2000 — Florida faced seven ranked teams, but those included bowl games. The Gators have never seen a path like this, which also includes a home game against dangerous UCF in early October.

“It’s a healthy thing,” Napier said. “It’s good for our team in terms of everybody’s talking about that part of the year. Maybe it causes them to do a little bit extra. Maybe it causes them to be a little more focused, a little more detailed.

“You’re planning and preparing and working hard to prepare for a great challenge.”

A challenge that might not be repeated, although with the SEC potentially moving to a nine-game league schedule as soon as 2026, no one can rule it out.

Nonetheless, Florida already has watered down two of its future schedules by canceling home-and-home series with California (2026, 2027) and North Carolina State (2026, 2032). The Gators still have contracted series with Arizona State (2028, 2031), Colorado (2028, 2029) and Notre Dame (2031, 2032).

Stricklin signed all of those to diversify Florida’s home slate and give fans opportunities to see new opponents. It seemed like a good idea until the approach collided with the ever-changing landscape of college football.

Now, the Gators are stuck with a schedule no one would honestly welcome. It’s an obstacle for sure, but also an opportunity.

“We’ve got to control what we can control, eliminate, minimize our errors,” Napier said. “It’s kind of like sharpening the axe to get ready to go chop down that tree. Sharpen that axe, which we can.”

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